The BLS reported that for the week ending Nov. 14, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were 505,000. Last week's number was revised slightly higher to 505,000 as well.
"The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 520,500."
Unadjusted, there were 479,295 new claims, a decrease of 53,132 from the week before, and well below the 513,000 initial claims in the same week last year.
In unadjusted terms, this was the best new claims number, relative to normal seasonal adjustment, in over a year. The 4 week moving average is now about 21% lower than the peak of 658,750 on April 3 of this year. Needless to say, the continuing decline in the number of new claims bodes well for the jobs outlook.
Just What Exactly Do You Mean by “Money,” Buster? #23
5 minutes ago
3 comments:
Sorry, I still dont quite understand why data is seasonally adjusted. Why cant you simply look at the unadjusted data to make conclusions(ex. claims came in higher in July, but that's to be expected because of factory closings, etc). Isnt there a risk of manipulation with seasonal adjustments, or drawing the wrong conclusions?
According to my calculations we could see a 484,000 jobless claims
number next week,,,,,the seasonal
facotr is 1.157 and I am anticpating a 80,000 jump in NSA.
It could come in lower than that.
JJ:
Examining raw numbers is fine. The limitations are: (1)you must use YoY comparisons, and (2) you should then compare the trend in YoY comparisons over time. For example, for X series we are YoY -10% now, but last month we were -20%, so the trend is improving, relatively speaking. But that still doesn't tell you if the trend is just "less worse/better" or actually "better/worse". Only the SA data can give you that.
With NSA initial jobless claims, (1) YoY were are better than last year same time, and (2) the comparison over time is improving. The raw numbers are getting worse, but that is to be expected at this time of year -- the SA tells you that they are getting a lot "less worse" than last year, although still "more worse" than during the expansion.
Brodero:
Without comment on the specific number you predict, I think your train of thought is correct. Generally speaking, neither seasonal hiring nor seasonal firing is taking place this year.
Post a Comment