Thursday, November 19, 2009

Sage Wisdom For Investing -- In Anything

I oft mention David Rosenberg, and he oft mentions one of the wisest men on Wall St., Bob Farrell. Farrell is a legendary, Hall of Fame market maven and technician who plied his trade for decades at Merrill Lynch. When he left (he still writes a subscription-only newsletter), he penned his Market Rules to Remember, which I'd posted a long while ago over at Blah3 and will share with the Bonddad crowd now. These rules are truly timeless, and applicable to investing in just about anything. Without further ado:

1) Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2) Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3) There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent.
4) Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5) The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6) Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7) Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.
8) Bear markets have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
9) When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen.
10) Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

Print them out and keep them handy. You'll be glad you did.