Thursday, November 19, 2009

October Leading Indicators

As I predicted a couple of weeks ago, October Leading Economic Indicators (and revisions to September) came in at +0.3, the seventh positive reading in a row. This suggests that economic growth will continue through this quarter and the first quarter of 2010 as well.

To repeat what I said then: typically, even in the last two "jobless recoveries", jobs began to be added to the economy when the YoY LEI was up +5% or better. This month will replace the awful -1% of October 2008, meaning that for the last 7 months, the LEI is up 5.9%, and up 4.2% YoY. If the LEI simply print flat for November and December, the YoY growth will be +5.0%, consistent with jobs being added in December or January.

In view of this week's poor housing permits number, that should prove interesting.