The devil here is in the details. Consider the following information:
The overall PMI has increased 5 months in a row from 32.9 in January to 42.8 in May. while this is still technically in contraction because it's below 50 the overall trend is very positive.
New orders have increased from 33.1 in February to 55.1 in May. New orders have increased every month.
Production has increased from 36.2 in February to 46 in May. Production has increased every month.
The Backlog of orders has increased from 31 in February to 48 in May.
New export orders have increased from 37.5 February to 48 in May.
Here's a chart of the ISM from econoday:
There are still problem spots in the report. There were only 5 industries reporting growth:
Five of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in May. These industries — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities. The industries reporting contraction in May — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Paper Products.
Employment, inventories and customer inventories are still weak.
But overall, the chart is encouraging.
