Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Wednesday Commodities Round-Up


Industrial metals declines sharply in the second half of last year. Since that fall they have consolidated their losses in a triangle pattern. They broke through upside resistance about a month and a half ago, but have fallen the last two weeks. The technical picture is still solid -- the 10 and 20 week SMAs are rising as are the MACD and RSI. But the RSI has dipped a bit and prices are currently standing at the 10 week SMA for support.

The daily chart adds some much needed clarity. Notice first that prices have broken the uptrend that started in late February. Prices have also fallen through the 10 and 20 day SMAs while the MACD has given a sell signal and the RSI is losing strength.


Agricultural prices sold off at the end of last year and have since consolidated in a triangle formation. While the MACD and the RSI have been increasing -- indicating a technical move higher -- prices have yet to break out. Notice that prices and the SMAs are in a tight pattern indicating an overall lack of direction.

Note that on the daily chart we have no firm direction. While prices are in a technical rally since the beginning of March, the upper bounds of the triangle consolidation are clearly keeping prices contained. The MACD provides no direction, nor does the RSI or SMA. The good news in this chart is there is no indication we'll see prices move lower. Considering the overall economic pictture, this is a good thing as it means deflation is off the table for now. But it's also possible for prices to meander at low levels for awhile.