Thursday, April 30, 2009

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up

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Prices have broken out of a triangle consolidation pattern but have since formed a rounding top. They are now using the 10 week SMA as technical support. The MACD and RSI are still rising indicating upward momentum. The 10 week SMA has crossed over the 20 week SMA and the 20 week SMA is turning positive.

The daily chart shows prices are currently consolidating in a triangle consolidation pattern. Prices and the 10 and 20 day SMAs are in a tight configeration indicating a lack of direction. The MACD and stochastics are heading lower while the RSI is giving a neutral reading.

Read together, these charts don't provide a very clear picture. The weekly chart is giving a conflicting signal with postive technical indicators but a topping formation on the price chart. The daily chart is also mixed, but the weight of the evidence (MACD, stochastics) is down.

On the fundamental side the trend is still bearish

Crude oil stocks are still increasing and are at very high historical levels.

Regular gas prices are staying right around $2.00/gallon indicating a lack of demand pull.

Gas demand was fairly level for the last 4 weeks.

But the total number of miles traveled is dropping