Core year-over-year CPI price growth, at 2.7%, is above the Fed's preferred 2% soft target for this measure that is roughly consistent with the 1%-2% comfort zone for the core chain price index for personal consumption. And the headline year-over-year gain moved upward to 2.4% from 2.1%. The core year-over-year rate may drift down toward the 2.5% area through mid-year due to easier comparisons, but this may not suit a Fed that would probably like to see the figures "comfortably" and sustainably within the preferred range, and not just dancing at the upper end.
A few points:
1.) A central tenant of central bank thinking over the last 6-9 months is that a slowing economy would lead to lower inflation. That hasn't materialized yet. While oil prices are down, they certainly aren't deflationary yet. And agricultural prices are rising, indicating they may take oil's place as the inflation area of concern.
2.) All of the fed governors have publicly stated inflation is still too high. This implies we are nowhere near a rate cut even if the economy slows.
3.) We are nowhere near stagflation. While the overall inflation level is still a concern, it is hardly at out-of-control or runaway levels. However, the overall inflation level is still way too high to consider a rate cut.
