- by New Deal democrat
As I’ve written several times this week, my focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration apparent in job growth would reappear after the blockbuster January report.
Deceleration absolutely reasserted itself:
and manufacturing jobs appear to have rolled over, while construction and temporary jobs held up:
Although here too the decelerating trend is apparent.
Here’s my in depth synopsis.
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and will help us gauge whether the strong rebound from the pandemic will continue. These were mixed, although as indicated above even the positive indicators still weakened:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
In absolute terms, this report was yet another solid positive report in terms of job growth. In relative terms, however, the deceleration which was apparent for most of last year resumed.
Positive signs included growth in temporary and construction jobs, the nearly total recovery in food and drinking places jobs, resumed stronger wage growth, an increase in labor force participation, and a decline in those who aren’t in the labor force but want a job now.
Negatives included a resumption in the decline of the manufacturing work week, a decline in manufacturing jobs (plus downward revisions for the prior two months), increases ini both the un- and under-employment rates as well as short term unemployment, and an outright decline in the number of hours worked.
Deceleration was apparent in residential construction jobs, professional and business jobs, and aggregate non-supervisory payrolls.
In sum, we have further deceleration but no indication of any imminent downturn in the number of actual jobs available in the economy.