Thursday, February 23, 2023

Initial claims continue recent excellent streak


 - by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated range that started in November:

On a YoY basis, contnuing claims were slightly higher, while initial claims were slightly lower:

Remember, I do not believe there is any recession signal until initial claims on a 4 week moving average basis are at least 10% higher YoY.

The almost complete lack of layoffs remains one of the two biggest signals (along with near-record housing units under construction) contra any near-term recession.