Thursday, September 15, 2022

Improvement in initial jobless claims continues


 - by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims continued their reversal from had been in an almost relentless uptrend from spring through early August.

This week initial claims declined another -5,000 to 213,000, and the 4 week average declined another -8,000 to 224,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 2,000 from a heavily revised 1,401,000 the previous week  (it had been initially reported at 1,473,000):

As I wrote last week, continued claims lag initial claims. I expected them to reverse lower, and they have, from a revised high of 1,437,000 on August 20.

I put this down to a positive effect of lower gas prices, which I also expect to positively influence consumer confidence and also Biden’s approval ratings.

The long term outlook in next year remains negative; but I only expect this to reassert itself once the effects of lower gas prices are fully reflected in the coincident and short term data.