Thursday, September 15, 2022

August industrial production declines; overall decelerating trend consistent with recession in 2023


 - by New Deal democrat

Finishing today’s data dump, industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, declined -0.2% in August, while manufacturing production increased 0.1%. July’s sharp gains in both were revised slightly (-0.1%) downward: 

While July remains the high water mark for overall production, manufacturing has not made a new high since April.

What I see is a decelerating trend which will probably continue to worsen as the Fed raises rates. This adds to the evidence that a recession is likely next year.