- by New Deal democrat
New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic, with both new infections and deaths at their lowest point since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
We have already hit my objectives for claims to be under 500,000 before Memorial Day, and to be below 400,000 by Labor Day. My new, final objective is for claims to average 325,000 or below, which would signify a return to normal expansion levels in the past 30 years.
Turning to this week’s report, new jobless claims declined 9,000 to 376,000. The 4 week average of claims declined by 25,500 to 402,500. Both are new pandemic lows. (Note that I have discontinued comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted claims, as the period of lockdown distortions YoY has passed.)