Sunday, August 30, 2020

The 2020 Presidential and Senate polling nowcast: Biden’s popular majority is congealing


 - by New Deal democrat

Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical or nearly identical in early November.

As I have frequently noted, Trump’s approval has always reverted to the mean, absent a new outrage that is both unusually cruel and simultaneously unusually inept. Since there has been none in the past few weeks, Trump’s margin reverted by 2% for both approval and disapproval. Perhaps more importantly, there has been virtually no movement in the past week, despite the RNC convention: