- by New Deal democrat
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were positive:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
A special note: Included in the total were 238,000 census hires. Without these, the net gain in jobs was 1,133,000.
This was another positive report, but with some shades of difference. The establishment survey was the smallest gain in the past 4 months, even before census hires are taken in to account. By contrast, the household report, which determines the unemployment rate, was much stronger.
All of the leading indicators in the report were positive. Further, that average hourly wages for nonsupervisory jobs rose along with the number of recalls was very good news on the wage front.
The one significant concern is that the number of permanent job losses increased to a level on par with April and June, the worst months since the pandemic hit. This is a sign that areas of unemployment are becoming permanent and will not automatically rebound with the control of the coronavirus.
All in all, the message is that of continued substantial, but incremental, gains since the April bottom in jobs. At the rate of gains in the past two months, it would take another 8 months to regain all the jobs lost in the first two months of the pandemic.
Politically, this is *relatively* helpful to the Trump campaign, but it is by no means good enough to overcome the huge losses overall this year. There will only be one more jobs report before the election, and unless there is a miracle in the next month - which is needless to say very unlikely - Trump is going to face Election Day with a poor jobs record.