Friday, June 17, 2016

The consumer is still all right

 - by New Deal democrat

With May's CPI reported, I can now update real retail sales and real retail sales per capita. The former is a short leading indicator, the latter a longer leading indicator.  To cut to the chase, here they are:

Both have set new highs.

While there are lots of production-side metrics that are consistent with recession, like industrial production, manufacturer's sales, and the inventory to sales ratio, the consumer side of the economy continues to be doing OK.