Monday, June 13, 2016

A note on personal withholding taxes

 - by New Deal democrat

Last Friday I wrote a piece dissecting the latest graph in Doomer porn, which purported to show that personal withholding taxes paid had fallen to a meager +0.1% YoY.  Since both the Daily and Monthly Treasury Reports are public and online, it didn't take long to debunk that claim.

But just to be sure, I asked Matt Trivisonno, who at his blog Daily Jobs Update has tracked withholding tax payments for the last decade, to double-check my work.

Normally, Matt charges for a subscription to the most current reports, but in this case he didn't simply verify my calculations, he sent me a graph that is completely up to date, and gave me permission to post it.  So here it is:

Measured on a rolling basis YoY, withholding taxes paid over a 3 month period have generally decelerated since midyear 2015, but have remained relentlessly positive -- and have rebounded to 4.11% by Matt's calculation as of last week.

I can only assume -- since the source of the graph, Evercore, hasn't published any links to or descriptions of their data -- that somewhere in the Monthly Treasury Report is some series that is only up +0.1% YoY.  But what I can say with great confidence that it isn't personal withholding taxes paid.