The Yield Curve Spread Points to Slow Growth
The 30-2 year spread is Near a 5-Year Low
The 10-2 year spread is Near a 5 Year Low
The productivity slowdown has often been called a “puzzle”, because it has coincided with a period of rapid technological change in the internet sector. I am not sure that this is really a “puzzle”. Many of the obvious benefits of the internet revolution appear to increase human welfare without leading to increases in market transactions and nominal GDP [1]. Furthermore, there are several other plausible reasons for the productivity slowdown, including low business investment and a loss of economic dynamism since the financial crash [2].
