Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Brazil ETF Sees Massive Sell-off

The daily chart (top chart) shows that prices broke through key support at the 48 and 50 price level at the end of May and beginning of June.  Since then, prices have dropped to around the 42 level, or a move lower of ~12.5%.  There's been a marked uptick in volume on the first leg lower, although this decreased on the second move down -- a possible indication that the selling is over.  The lower EMAs are now below the 200 day EMA and momentum is very weak.

The weekly chart (lower chart) is now at a three year low.  All the underlying technical indicators are weak as well -- the MACD is declining and the CMF is negative. 

Markets initially reacted negatively to the Fed announcement that they would taper their asset buying.  But there are deeper issues with Brazil -- GDP is weak, inflation is running hotter than the central bank would like and their primary export market of China is slowing.