Last months PMI data was an economic shot heard round the conservative blogsphere. Ed Morrissey of Hot Air wrote:
As the numbers show, this isn’t much of a slide. The problem is that
manufacturing hasn’t been performing strongly in the first place. As
with the overall economy, it’s been stagnating rather than expanding,
and the gap between expectations and contraction was already quite
Of course, he was wrong in his analysis as manufacturing had been expanding at a solid pace since the end of the recession. In fact, it was manufacturing that helped to pull the US out of the recession.
And who could forget John Hinderakers analysis, which I took apart in this post.
Of course, neither noted that the Markit number was still in expansion.
Last month's PMI showed a rebound into positive territory:
"The PMI™ registered 50.9 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points
from May's reading of 49 percent, indicating expansion in the
manufacturing sector for the fifth time in the first six months of 2013.
The New Orders Index increased in June by 3.1 percentage points to 51.9
percent, and the Production Index increased by 4.8 percentage points to
53.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.7 percent, a decrease
of 1.4 percentage points compared to May's reading of 50.1 percent.
Manufacturing employment contracted for the first time since September
2009, when the index registered 47.8 percent. The Prices Index
registered 52.5 percent, increasing 3 percentage points from May,
indicating that overall raw materials prices increased from last month.
Comments from the panel generally indicate slow growth and improving
Also note the internals of the report, which showed a strong increase in production and new orders.
It's been a full week since this report, and there has been nary a word from any the esteemed writers on the right of the news.
So -- why is this lack of news important? Simple. These individuals want their economic analysis too be taken seriously. Yet they ignore data that doesn't fit their preconceived narrative.