Monday, May 13, 2013

Market Analysis: US

Pulling back to a year long view of the daily chart, first notice the rally that started in mid-Novemver.  We see a continuing upward move of higher highs and higher lows with prices using the EMAs for technical support.  There are also several periods of price consolidation (late February, late March, mid and late April/early May), allowing the market to "breath."  The CMF indicates we've seen a steady stream of money flowing into the market.  The one negative of the chart is the MACD declining for a fair amount of the period in a modest way.

The NASDAQ has been a surprising laggard to the current rally.  While this index also shows an uptrend starting in mid-November, it was contained by yearly highs established in mid-September.  However, prices have finally broken through the 70 price level, making strong advances, closing the week at 73.10.  Again we see a consistent inflow of money and -- unlike the SPY -- a strong MACD reading.

The Russell 2000 shows three primary trends.  A rally from mid-November to late March, a downward sloping trend channel from late March to late April and then a rally breaking through the top line of the channel and the high established in late March.  The MACD is now printing a strong level of upward momentum and the CMF is showing decent cash inflow into the market.