Monday, May 20, 2013

Ample Supply of "Softs" Are Keeping Prices Low and the Market Depressed


Coffee futures have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as traders worried over ample global supplies and speculators pushed prices lower.


Sugar prices fell to the weakest level since August 2010 last week as farmers in Brazil started to accelerate harvesting of the nation's sugar crops.

Sugar growers in Brazil's center-south region, which accounts for about 90% of the country's production, are forecast to harvest a record 589.6 million metric tons of sugar cane in the 2013-14 season, according to Unica, Brazil's sugar industry association.

Let's go to the chart:

Prices are in a classic downtrend.  Most importantly, notice the 200 day EMA is clearly moving lower and that prices are below this key indicator.  The shorter EMAs are also moving lower and are below the 200 day EMA.  Mathematically, this will continue to pull the 200 day lower.  Candles are using the 10, 20 and 50 day EMAs are technical resistance, which is another sign of a bear market.  Prices are moving lower lows and lower highs as well.

Short version: this is a great example of a bear market chart.