The latest supply information is bearish:
Shipments of refined copper into China in March dropped 37 percent from a year earlier, customs figures showed today. Purchases of previously owned houses slid 0.6 percent to a 4.92 million annual rate last month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today. That trailed the 5 million rate projected in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
In the April post, I noted that on the weekly chart, copper had broken technical support of a triangle consolidation pattern. That trend has continued:
- The blue arrow is from earlier this month.
- The red arrow shows that prices have continued to move lower.
- All the shorter EMAs are moving lower, with the shortest below the longest
- Prices are below the 200 week EMA
- Momentum is dropping and negative
- the CMF is negative
Above is a daily copper chart.
- The big area of support was at ~41-42. Once prices broke that level, they dropped hard
- Prices are at/near a one year low
- All the shorter EMAs are moving lower, with the shorter below the longer
- Prices are below the 200 day EMA
- Momentum is negative and has given a sell-signal
- The CMF has turned positive, indicating we might be seeing some bottom fishing.