Monday, April 22, 2013

Market Analysis: US

The top chart is a 60 minute chart of the SPYs.
  • Prices have moved in a downward sloping channel from the 159 to 154 level since April 12. 
  • After hitting 154 we see prices move higher into the 200 minute EMA.
  • Momentum has shifted giving a positive signal, but the indicator is still negative
The daily chart shows:
  • a disciplined sell-off forming a downward sloping pennant pattern 
  • the 50 day EMA is currently providing support.
  • Prices have broken the support of the trend line connecting the late December 2012 and February 2013 lows.
  • The MACD is weakening, although still positive.
  • We see an increase in volume on the most recent sell-off

The daily QQQ shows the following
  •  Prices have broken the trend line of the mid-November, late-December and late February lows for a second time.
  • The most recent trend break has been by a solid candle on higher volume
  • Prices have also broken the 50 day EMA
  • Momentum is weak
  • The MACD has given a sell signal

On the daily IWM, notice the following:
  • The MACD has been weakening since February
  • The MACD is now in negative territory
  • The CMF is very weak
  • Prices have hit the 94.5-95 level twice, only to be rebuffed.  
  • Prices are below all the shorter EMAs
  • The 10 day EMA is about to cross below the 50 day EMA
  • Prices are using the top Fib fan for technical support
Summation: All the major averages are showing weakness in the form of broken trends, downward sloping formations and weakening momentum.  But this is not a major trend yet; instead, it's a disciplined move lower.