Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Is the Japanese Outlook Getting Brighter?

Consider the following chart, which polls the attitudes and opinions of domestic businesses regarding the domestic economy:


 Oct.-Dec.
2012
(previous)
 Jan.-Mar.
2013
(present)
 Apr.-Jun.
2013
(outlook)
 Jul.-Sep.
2013
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
All industries -18.7 17.9 15.8 12.2
 Manufacturing -20.8 11.3 13.8 11.6
 Non-manufacturing -17.6 21.5 16.9 12.6
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
All industries -23.9 9.6 14.8 12.8
 Manufacturing -27.8 -1.0 11.1 14.7
 Non-manufacturing -22.8 12.8 15.9 12.3
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
All industries -32.1 -2.7 9.2 8.6
 Manufacturing -38.4 -10.0 4.9 7.7
 Non-manufacturing -30.9 -1.2 10.1 8.8

Notice the big jump from low negative numbers (-18.7) to decent positive numbers (17.9) from big industries.  We see similar improvement in the mid-size and small company categories.

Consider the above information in the context of the Japanese ETF:


 Prices bottomed in mid-late November and have been rising since.  Prices moved through resistance at the 10-10.1 area in late February.  The EMA picture is very positive, as are the underlying technical indicators.