Monday, August 27, 2012

The Long-Term Market Still Isn't Breaking Out

The above chart shows the SPYs for the last 10 years.  Notice that, in the grand scheme of things, we've really only traded in a big range.  Granted, it's a 70 point range, but there hasn't been a meaningful appreciation above previous highs.  In fact, right now, we're (again) running up against very long-term upside resistance.

The Russell 2000 has formed a triangle consolidation pattern over the last three years.

 The QQQs have moved through previous highs.  But remember that prices are still below tech bubble levels.

At the same time, over the last 10 years, we've seen a massive rally in the bond market.