Thursday, August 9, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Both the Brazilian market (top chart) and Chinese market (bottom chart) have broken through resistance.  The Brazilian market recently made the move; also note the rising short term EMAs (the 10 and 20 day) and that prices are above all the shorter EMAs.  Also note the rising MACD and positive CMF.  The Chinese market is right at the 200 day EMA.   The 10 and 20 day EMAs have moved through the 50 day EMA and the CMF is positive.

The junk bond market is still in the middle of a multi-year rally.  All the EMA are moving higher and momentum is positive.  This move is to be expected, as the yields on treasuries are so low.

It looks like the industrial metals market is trying to bottom.  We see a bottom around the 17.25/17.50 area and a descending top connecting the highs established in July.  Also note the narrowing Bollinger Band numbers for July, indicating that volatility is dropping.

Oil bottomed at the end of June/beginning of July and has been rising since.  Prices first hit the 200 day EMA in mid-July and is now rallying to that number again.  The shorter EMAs have moved through the 50 day EMA.