In a new post up today, Zero Hedge claims that (from Zero Hedge):
"The seasonal addback in April was +22K, a rapid break from the last 3
years when April saw a negative seasonal adjustment following the
traditional huge positive adjustments in the January-March period, which
in turn means that the record warm winter give back has not even
started! As a result, the seasonal addbacks in 2012 are now a massive
4,499,000 jobs: jobs that have not been added but are expected to
materialize based on historical seasonal patterns."
Read that again. Yes, in fact the geniuses at Zero Hedge essentially admit that they can neither read a report, nor do simple third grade math. In FACT, only the January report has added jobs through the seasonal adjustment. In February the NSA number was +902,000 (vs a +259,000 seasonally adjusted number), ie the seasonal adjustment SUBTRACTED 643,000 jobs in February AND in March, the NSA number was +811,000 (vs a +154,000 seasonally adjusted number), ie the seasonal adjustment SUBTRACTED 657,000 jobs in March, and finally for April, the NSA number was +896,000 (vs a +115,000 seasonally adjusted number), ie the seasonal adjustment SUBTRACTED 781,000 jobs in April. Thus, the seasonal "addbacks" for the year are now a NET of 862,000, not 4.5 million (which will come out over the remainder of the year). Quick intelligence test for Zero Hedge, you do realize that the seasonal adjustments essentially zero out every year right?
Chalk this up as yet another reason to NEVER, EVER listen to Zero Hedge when it comes to interpretations of statistical reports.
