All three, 60 minute charts of the major equity averages show that prices are still in an uptrend.
The dollar is a different story. The top chart (a daily chart) show that prices have broken their uptrend and found support at lows established in early January. In addition, the shorter EMAs are moving lower and the 50 day EMA is moving sideways. The MACD has given a sell signal and the A/D and CMF show money is leaving the market.
On the lower, weekly chart, we see that prices have broken their upward trend line. While the MACD is still positive, it is approaching a sell signal. However, the trend break is the real story here.
This is a chink in the bullish market argument, as a rising dollar would be a sign of improved investor sentiment toward the US economy as a place to invest. Some of this decline is due to the euro's recent risk (it has broken it's downward sloping channel patter). However, I'm guessing there is also some second guessing occurring regarding the US economy's overall situation.
After breaking slight upward sloping trend lines, the IEFs an TLTs are hitting support established over the last few months. Prices need to make moves through these support levels to give the bulls added upside momentum.
Right now, it appears we're seeing a bit of upward hesitancy. This is to be expected, given that last week we saw prices move through important technical levels. However, a pause can quickly turn into a reversal with the right fundamental change, so we definitely need to keep our eyes open.
