Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Morning Market

Yesterday, I commented that this week would be a good time for the market to pull back from its latest rally in order to catch its breath.  That's what happened yesterday.


On the 10 day, 5-minut chart, prices are still in an upward sloping patter just barely.  Yesterday, prices gapped lower at the open, traded sideways for most of the session, and then moved lower, selling off at the end of the day.  This is generally a bad sign, as it indicates traders don't want to hold positions overnight for fear of negative events.



On the daily chart, yesterday's sell-off took prices down to the trend line, but on weak volume.



However, prices are right at the 10 day EMA and still have technical support from the 200 day EMA.



The big move came in the Treasury market, where the long-end of the curve rallied strongly on a slight uptick in volume.  Yesterday's bar gapped higher at the open and closed at its high -- an extremely bullish development.

From the equity/bond perspective, yesterday was one day of trading, so reading too much into the events should be avoided.  However, it's also important that a lot of technical change did occur in a single trading period, as it shows that traders have an itchy trigger finger.



After peaking earlier this year, gold sold-off and consolidated along the long term trend line.  Over the last few days it ha spiked higher.



The 3 month charts shows that prices and the EMAs are in a tight range, indicating indecision on the part of traders.  Also note the lack of volume, showing diminishing enthusiasm.  Gold is in a holding pattern right now.