Treasury Market Update -- Safety or Inflation?

The treasury market is in an interesting place.  On one hand, it is the beneficiary of a safety bid in the market -- that is, traders see US treasury bonds as a safe bet in a churning sea.  At the same time, 12 month CPI is at 3.6%, so all treasury bonds are underwater from a real return perspective.  This leads to the question, how much higher can they go?

The SHYs (1-3 years) have been moving sideways for the last month, indicating the inflation issue is controlling.

Both ETFs in the belly of the curve (3-7 years) have recently broken uptrends.

The long end of the Treasury curve is approaching the trend line, but has not yet broken trend.

The charts indicate that, despite the safety bid occurring in the market, inflation concerns appear to be keeping treasury gains at bay.