After falling through the 200 day EMA, the SPYs have now formed an upward sloping channel. Prices are below the 200 day EMA, indicating we're in a bear market. Prices have continually run into resistance at the EMAs, indicating a lack of upward momentum. The 200 day EMA is now moving lower -- which is a very bearish development. The market appears to be in an upward sloping rally in reaction to the recent sell-off. I would expect the market to retest the 112 area before thinking about moving higher.
The euro has moved through key support, indicating traders are deeply concerned about the EU situation. Prices are also below the 200 day EMA and the long-term trend line -- more bearish developments. The only good technical development for this chart is that prices are a long way from the shorter EMAs, implying a snap back will be needed. Also note the shorter EMAs are still tightly intertwined, rather than all being in a traditional bear market alignment. Last week, the ECB did not raise rates and noted an overall slower growth environment. Between the Greece and slower growth, there are ample reasons to be concerned.
The dollar has rallied strongly as a result of the euro's drop. It has moved through key resistance and is now above the 200 day EMA on very strong volume. This has bearish implications for commodities as all are priced in dollars. However, considering the every rapid ascent of the dollar over the last week, some pull-back would be very natural.
The oil market has formed a bear market flag pattern. Put another way, during the middle of a downward sloping market, prices have moved higher in a counter move. But prices are hemmed in by EMAs, bearish sentiment and an increasing dollar. Should prices continue to move higher, they will be contained by the 200 day EMA.
The markets overall condition is bearish. Risk assets (equities and oil) are in decline while safety assets (the dollar, gold and treasuries) are rallying. The primary reason for this is the increasingly bearish underlying economic fundamentals which are point to -- at best -- a very weak economy.
