Monday, August 22, 2011

Treasury Tuesdays

Last week, I wrote the following about the market:
The daily chart shows a bit of a sell-off. However, prices are still above the 10 day EMA and looking to hit them for support. Also note the drop in volume. This indicates there isn't much selling (talking profit) in the current market, so traders are clearly waiting for something.
After a strong, flight for safety induced rally, the markets were moving sideways, consolidating their overall gains.


The above shows a slight upward move, but on very weak volume and with very weak bars. The EMAs are still bullishly aligned and are providing technical support.


The 5 minute charts shows the trading action in far more detail. After rising last Tuesday and Wednesday, prices are now consolidating on considerably weaker volume. Notice the tightness of the trading range -- 103.6-104.1


The technicals tell use that money is still positive , but the flat A/D tells us that traders are getting less excited about this security. However, there is still positive momentum.

Finally, consider this long-term chart:


Prices are clearly advancing over a long-term trend line on increasing volume.

Overall, the IEFS are looking over-extended in the short run; prices have moved through resistance in near parabolic fashion on high volume, largely as a safe haven play. However, there is still a great deal of concern regarding the overall economy, and the Fed is not raising rates anytime soon, so there is little downward pressure on prices right now.