For the last week, the first thing I read is news from Japan. I also catch updates as they're posted throughout the day. Frankly, I can't begin to describe my feelings about it. There is the obvious shock regarding what is happening. But most importantly, as I watch the rescue efforts -- especially those over the last few days -- I am deeply troubled by the lack of sophistication in the efforts. Last night I watched as helicopters dropped water on the reactor facility and all I could think is, "is this all they've got?" Frankly, the experience is almost surreal.
But more importantly, I am deeply concerned about the long-term psychological impact this disaster has on the world's economy. Last year, we watched oil bleed into the gulf of Mexico for the better part of a few months; this period dovetailed with a time of decreasing economic activity in the U.S. and the world, and also led to concern about a possible double dip recession. That particular disaster appeared to have a life all its own; the rescue efforts never seemed to end. At this point with Japan, I am beginning to have the same sense of, "when will this end?" and not having a good answer. Most troubling is the sense that this will not end well; that is perhaps what bothers me the most.
Basically, the longer this drags on, the more and more concerned I become that the damage to psychology will be larger and larger.
Noted for June 18, 2013
1 hour ago
2 comments:
The water was dropped on the waste pools. This wasn't the reactor itself, it was a storage pool that's used to cool waste fuel which is still radioactive and very very hot, even though there is no more nuclear reactions taking place. It was not a priority (not when the actual reactors were melting down) until the dead pumps allowed the fuel to boil away the water. At this point they're burning into radioactive smoke -- you don't want people near them and given there's no risk of meltdown, dumping water by helicoptor really is a good way to handle it, even if it's unelegant. It quenches the burn without endangering workers and no one's really concerned about the state of the waste as long as it's underwater.
On a more general level, I lived and worked in Japan for a couple years. They absolutely put America to shame when it comes to preparation. To SHAME. These reactors took an insane amount of punishment; that the disaster is ONLY this bad is a vindication, not indictment, of how they do things. However, they are quite bad at ad-libbing, which is what's called for NOW. If a situation calls for a decision that does not conform to pre-established protocol, they would rather do nothing, blame it on faulty procedure and revise the protocol AFTER the bodies are buried. Also, the current government only recently took power so they're rather inexperienced; I want to hope that's a good thing (the old guard is more likely to be spineless) but my gut tells me the downside is bigger. So, I'm worried about the pace at which they are restoring local order.
This is going to take an agonizing amount of time for me.
The real question for the economy will start to get answered in another week or so. Right now, it's hard to be sure of what the global economic toll will be, but much of it will likely come down to supply shortages for electronics. Manufacturing is all just-in-time these days and so most manufacturers aren't going to have more than a couple weeks of excess supply to keep their plants going.
Right now we're in the period of uncertainty because we're still waiting to see how it plays out. But the next few weeks could be either surprisingly positive as the relative damage to global supply chains turns out to be minimal, or it could be much worse as supply chains start grinding to a halt.
It does point out an enormous vulnerability of the globalized economy though. With countries building specialized industries, they become single points of failure for the entire economy. That while, in the short run we realize tremendous efficiencies, in the long run, we risk supply shocks for everything from oil to semiconductors.
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