Thursday, December 9, 2010

Initial Claims Are Finally Moving in the Right Direction


The 4-week moving average has been moving lower for the last four months, which is obviously a far better trend than the near stagnation we were seeing for most of this year.
Posted by Hale Stewart at 12/09/2010 02:30:00 PM

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

My only concern is that this is happening during a time when the seasonal adjustment is turned way up. Are initial claims trending lower because employers just can't cut any more workers during the holidays or does the true improvement just happen to coincide with the holiday season. I guess we'll know for sure by the end of January. Certainly feels like a lifetime since I saw claims at something like 360k.

December 9, 2010 4:11 PM
jiffypop said...

If you would allow me to be partisan for a moment....
....seems like we started moving in the right direction around January 2009....

December 9, 2010 10:11 PM
J said...

anon, I sort of agree, but the claims are near a two year low, so I dont think it's only a seasonal adjustment affecting the numbers. And it does seem like claims have been down since August. But I think you are right, we will probably know for sure in Jan.

December 9, 2010 11:57 PM

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