Monday, January 4, 2010

December ISM Manufacturing expands faster, employment growing

The Institute for Supply Management's December Manufacturing Index came out, rising at a slightly greater rate than expected. The summary is as follows:

PMI 55.9 53.6 +2.3 Growing Faster
New Orders 65.5 60.3 +5.2 Growing Faster
Production 61.8 59.9 +1.9 Growing Faster
Employment 52.0 50.8 +1.2 Growing Faster
Supplier Deliveries 56.6 55.7 +0.9 Slowing Faster
Inventories 43.4 41.3 +2.1 Contracting Slower
Customers' Inventories 35.0 37.0 -2.0 Too Low Faster
Prices 61.5 55.0 +6.5 Increasing Faster
Backlog of Orders 50.0 52.0 -2.0 Unchanged From Growing
Exports 54.5 56.0 -1.5 Growing Slower
Imports 55.0 51.5 +3.5 Growing Faster

The Index indicates that the "OVERALL ECONOMY" has now been growing for 8 months, and manufacturing for 5.


The Index has now grown faster than in either of the past "jobless recoveries" for the last 3 months, and is growing faster than at any time since before the recession. Employment also continues to expand. The forward leading components of New Orders, Production, and Vendor Delieveries all show continuing strength going forward.

With specific regard to jobs, this report adds support for the idea that more likely than not, Friday's jobs report will show the first growth in employment in over two years.

In summary, this is a good report.