I just wanted to make a very short post in regards to the issue New Deal Democrat brought up earlier today about seasonal adjustments and how many in the blogoshpere (and in print) are trying to use the unadjusted data to back up their claims that the economy is getting worse.
You can't have it both ways, either you adjust or you don't. And if you decide not to then you must accept that last month the unadjusted household survey showed an unemployment rate of 9.5% (instead of the adjusted 10.2%) and the establishment survey showed an unadjusted employment GAIN of 641,000 jobs. Sadly, neither of those numbers backed up the "economy is getting worse" claims and thus the same people who are clamoring to use the unadjusted jobless claims data are using the adjusted employment situation data. Seems kinda hypocritical to me, but who am I.
Sorry for the short post, but it had to be said.
Elementary, My Dear Watanabe-san (Somewhat Wonkish)
18 minutes ago