- by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims rose last week to 551,000. At September's end, the 4 week moving average was 548,000. This is the lowest average of the year, since January.
While it looks like the retail sales effect on unemployment claims of "cash for clunkers" is ebbing, of more interest is that this is the very first time that the 4 week average is more than 16% less than the April 4 peak of 658,750.
It is my hypothesis that when this average stays below the 16% level for 2-3 months, preferably falling to the 20% level for about a month (under 530,000), that will mark the point where the economy actually starts to add jobs.
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1 comments:
So, assuming we stay here or move down, that puts the first jobs add in December-January? That seems fairly reasonable, although it needs to be a pretty big add in January to overcome the traditionally highly negative birth/death adjustment for that month. Any bets on the job loss/gain # for tomorrow (or unemployment rate)?
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