The 4-week moving average continues to drop.
New Deal Democrats wants to add the following point:
1. Historically there is a spike of new jobless claims that begins this week. This year there has been virtually no spike at all.
2. While the auto layoffs anomaly is a fair criticism, the proper way to deal with it is to spread the adjustment over the last ~10 weeks, with the result that the 4 week moving average would still be under 600,000 or about 10% under the peak from April, which suggests that this is a "real" indicator of nearly imminent GDP recovery.
2 comments:
Where is the rebound going to come from Bonddad? From your charts? Like most chartists, you believe that these graphs have an intrinsic mystical power, and that their magical shapes are destined to be retraced forever.
Wake up and look at the petroleum depletion data, the underwater home owners, the implosion of commercial real estate, and the bankruptcy of state governments. Tell us about a single category of consumer product for which demand is not at or near saturation. Do you need another cell phone, or laptop, or flat-screen TV?
Meanwhile, there is no credible source of liquidity that can handle the torrent of new US issued debt. That means the Fed will end up "buying" the debt by PRINTING MONEY. Goodbye USD.
The economic environment remains consistently negative, yet you expect a "recovery" because that's what your charts are predicting. No way.
Anonymous, there is constant demand for certain goods. Food, for instance. Things break, people want upgrades. No, we don't need another cell phone... until the one we have falls in the pool, is lost on the bike trail, whatever.
Also, the number of claims isn't a made up number. Every point along that graph is hard data. So I'd say it's fair to assume it will continue to decline. Maybe not immediately (there are hiccups in any trend, as you can see at http://www.newsy.com/videos/unemployment_numbers_too_soon_to_celebrate), but it will.
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