Thursday, July 16, 2009

Unemployment Claims Drop

The 4-week moving average continues to drop.

New Deal Democrats wants to add the following point:

1. Historically there is a spike of new jobless claims that begins this week. This year there has been virtually no spike at all.

2. While the auto layoffs anomaly is a fair criticism, the proper way to deal with it is to spread the adjustment over the last ~10 weeks, with the result that the 4 week moving average would still be under 600,000 or about 10% under the peak from April, which suggests that this is a "real" indicator of nearly imminent GDP recovery.