Monday, May 11, 2009

Market Mondays

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The QQQQs have been the leading index for this rally. However, there are some possible problems developing with the QQQQs leading status.


First, notice that prices have clearly broken the 3-month uptrend that started in early March.



Here's a closer look at the trend break. Notice that prices have moved through the trendline and are now sitting right around the 10 and 200 day SMA. Also note the volume spike over the last three trading days -- especially the day when prices fell. That tells us that traders were looking to get out.



A look at the daily chart shows the clear trend break along with the possible formation of a quick double bottom.

The point is on Friday the QQQQs did not advance with the other indexes. That lack of confirmation can be a warning sign that the trend is about to change. Considering the strength of the run we've had so far a sell-off would be welcome. However, there is nowhere near enouch data to make a firm call. So far, this is just an anomily we should be aware of.