The overall tone of the market remains negative. The general SMA situation is negative. The 200 and 50 day SMA are moving lower. The 20 is moving sideways. The 10 day SMA is rising, but prices retreated from the 50 day SMA. Should prices move below the 10 day SMA they will bring the 10 day SMA lower.
Although prices were fluctuating just below the 50 day SMA, they did so on decreasing volume indicating decreasing buying interest.
1 comment:
I'm perhaps being naively optimistic, but I feel like things are going to level off for a bit. We're near the holidays so less people are focusing on the markets. Much of the blood letting of layoffs, capital investment pullbacks, etc, are being announced prior to the end of the quarter. So a lot of the bad news is getting out of the system right now.
Going into next year we have a new President coming into office with new people in charge who can hopefully turn this around. At the very least having new blood in there will give a short term confidence boost.
I expect the recession will probably turn around in late 2009. Looking at various charts of long term trends it seems like our return to normal from the bubble states we've been in ends up around there. Basically we look like we're half way through. So it will probably be a solid two years of suck.
I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't get worse than that for now. However, this all seems ripe for a double-dip recession. All of those too big to fail companies that are still too big to fail are out there. So they have every incentive to make more foolish investments and mistakes that will end up putting us right back in a hole again.
Add to that the baby boomers retiring and pulling out whatever remains of their 401K's and I expect the markets are going to improve but not really go much of anywhere for a good long while.
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