1.) Employment gains moderated in early 2007
2.) Industrial production rose strongly in February and was revised up for both December and January.
3.) Real consumer spending appeared on track to rise at a robust pace in the first quarter, buoyed in part by a weather-related surge in spending on energy services and by a jump in sales of light motor vehicles. Outside of these areas, however, real consumer spending moderated
4.) Housing starts declined in January, extending the downward trend that had been in place since early 2006, but bounced back in February. However, adjusted permit issuance in the single-family sector continued to step down, suggesting that builders were still slowing the pace of new construction to work off elevated inventories.
5.) Business fixed investment had been sluggish in recent months.
6.) Businesses accumulated inventories of items other than motor vehicles at a slower pace in January than in the previous two quarter
7.) The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed considerably in the fourth quarter. Exports rose, partly reflecting a robust increase in deliveries of civilian aircraft to foreign buyers, while imports were pushed down by a fall in the volume and price of imported oil
8.) Economic activity in the advanced foreign economies accelerated in the fourth quarter.
So, lets sum up with a "good/bod analysis":
Good: International trade deficit decreasing, other countries economies doing well and industrial production. We'll put consumer spending in this category as well, largely because of today's retail sales report.
Bad: Housing and business investment.
In-between: OK - I added a category. Employment belongs here. Although the BLS has revised the last two months higher and the latest report was a pretty good 180,000, growth is slowing and service sector jobs decreased last month by 7000.
So, according to the Fed, we're running lukewarm right now.
Vizier Vic makes a good point in the comments:
Does anyone believe that foreign buyers have suddenly started snapping up all of the industrial production which is theoretically pouring off American production lines. That's the only thing which might account for the purported rise in industrial production given the rest of this report. Business fixed investment and inventory builds and residential construction are down (and house sales too) which all mean domestic consumption of industrially-produced products are down too. Where's the growth source? Can anybody identify it? Is it restricted solely to light trucks and automotive? It sure looks like it and that's a pretty slender reed on which to base an economy. Or, is it restricted to kilowatt-hours and barrels of oil? That's an even more treacherous sink hole.
According to the BEA's latest GDP report, exports totaled $1.523 trillion in the 4th quarter, up from $1.488.3 trillion in the third quarter. That's about 11% of the US economy.
