Same-store receipts at 55 of the nation's top chain-store retailers climbed 3.9% last month, according to Thomson Financial. That's above the 3.1% forecast. Same-store sales, considered the best measure of retail growth, are gleaned from the receipts rung up at stores open longer than a year.
At the International Council of Shopping Centers, which calculates same-store sales in a slightly different manner, the results were 3.7% higher, exceeding the 3% projection.
"Overall, the tone was pretty good," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist. "It was certainly a nice finish to the fiscal year -- and a nice start to the calendar year."
I'm still at a loss for the disconnect between the problems in the housing market and the continued strength of consumer spending. One of the reasons I thought there would be a recession at the end of 2006 or early 2007 was the expectation of the housing market problems bleeding into consumer spending. That hasn't happened. At least not yet.
6 comments:
Don't underestimate the bounce from gas prices slackening, due to speculative positions being rolled back and less cold weather (cumulative) than normal. That bounce will come primarily from low and middle income households, and its middle income households which will be feeling the early effects of the housing slide.
That's not a sustainable source of growth, but any source of growth carries short term momentum, whether or not its sustainable over the longer haul.
Personal Income was up 6.5% in the past year. Why are you so surprised?
This may be a drop in the bucket, but I think not. Gift cards/certificates have been mentioned before. In my circle of family and acquaintances, they were HUGE this year, cards of all kinds, from airlines to pre-paid VISA's. I've been using the ones I received at clearance sales the last six weeks.
I'd be interested to know how they are figured into the whole retail sales picture.
I know the housing bear-osphere is convinced that the housing market is the leading indicator for the overall US economy but it just aint so.
The ex interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are humming.
That's true in a particular sense. There is no such thing as "the" leading indicator. The leading indicators quite definitely include several from the housing sector, but the leading indicators only give a clear picture of what is coming up in the short term future, and only when they agree.
The housing sector is important enough to the US economy that a downturn is close to a pre-requisite for a recession, but no sector is so important that it can create a recession on its own if there are strong growth drivers elsewhere to pick up the slack.
Correlation aint causation to the dismay of the many who had studied the historical relationship between housing and recessions and had loaded up on red euros.
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