Friday, June 26, 2015

Why I Support Obamacare, or Scotus Care, Or The ACA

My Personal Stake In the Matter
 
     First, a bit about me.  I am 48 years old and weigh between 195-200 pounds.  I have regularly exercised since the spring of 2001. In the last 8 years, I can count the number of days I have missed working out on three hands.  Two days after recent surgeries (see below) I was doing light weight lifting – I’m that compulsive about it.  If I look at the clock and see it’s mid-afternoon and I haven’t hit the gym, I get itchy.  I take a vitamin pack and supplements daily.  And, in general, my diet is good, with the exception our weekly Tex-Mex meal.  But, we live in Texas and that just goes with the territory.  I mention all this to demonstrate that I am in very good health and take very good care of myself.
     However, about four years ago, I learned I had a condition called hip impingement.  In layman’s terms, my hips are mal-formed.  No amount of exercise or any other non-invasive procedure could solve this problem.  Thanks to modern orthopedics, this problem is easily solved; I’ve had both my hips “resurfaced” -- think of it has hip replacement light.  But, these procedures were obviously very expensive and, without insurance, we would not have been able to afford it.
     More importantly, I now have a “pre-existing condition” that, under previous laws, would have allowed an insurance company to discriminate against me, denying me coverage.  This would be a huge problem because I eventually will need at least one more hip replacement and, depending on my life span, two.  This would obviously be devastating to my family, because, while our business has been successful, we don’t have a spare $250,000 lying around for surgery.  This makes the prevention of discrimination based on pre-existing conditions of paramount importance to me.  Hence, a big reason why I support the legislation.
     But, consider the possibility that, when I was diagnosed with this problem, I didn’t have insurance and the old rules still existed.  Then, a successful entrepreneur with a medical condition that he couldn’t cure through diet and exercise (and who was clearly very responsible about his health), would have been subjected to a slow and painful degradation of his joints, eventually leading to decreasing productivity, and in the worst case scenario, the need to go on long-term disability.  Ask yourself this question: is this situation – which is increasingly common as the population becomes more athletic – a good public policy outcome?  If so, I hope you have perfect genetic health.  But, a lot of people don’t. 
     So, as we say in Texas, I have “a dog in this hunt.” 
Was the Old System that Bad?
 
      Yes it was.  First, there was the ability to discriminate.  But that’s not all.  Before the healthcare law was passed, medical bills caused 60% of all bankruptcies:
This year, an estimated 1.5 million Americans will declare bankruptcy. Many people may chalk up that misfortune to overspending or a lavish lifestyle, but a new study suggests that more than 60 percent of people who go bankrupt are actually capsized by medical bills.
Woolhandler and her colleagues surveyed a random sample of 2,314 people who filed for bankruptcy in early 2007, looked at their court records, and then interviewed more than 1,000 of them. Health.com: Expert advice on getting health insurance and affordable care for chronic pain
They concluded that 62.1 percent of the bankruptcies were medically related because the individuals either had more than $5,000 (or 10 percent of their pretax income) in medical bills, mortgaged their home to pay for medical bills, or lost significant income due to an illness. On average, medically bankrupt families had $17,943 in out-of-pocket expenses, including $26,971 for those who lacked insurance and $17,749 who had insurance at some point.
Overall, three-quarters of the people with a medically-related bankruptcy had health insurance, they say.
Think about the basic conclusion from the above study: even with insurance, a majority of bankruptcies were caused by medical costs.  That indicates very clearly that the old system simply did not work; hence the need for change. 
 
But, is the current structure of health care the best answer? 
Given the political realities, the answer is yes.  However, before I explain that, let me provide a bit more personal background.  One of my legal specialties is the formation of captive insurance companies; I’m co-author of the leading legal text in the field.  As a result, I’m more than a little familiar with the mechanics of underwriting risk
     The ACA (or is it now SCOTUS care) is based on a “three legged stool:”
The Court (minus the three stooges) understood that the ACA is designed to work via the “three-legged stool” of guaranteed issue and community rating, the individual mandate, and subsidies. All three elements are needed to make it work, which is why it was obvious to anyone who paid any attention that the lawsuit was nonsense
As I noted above, the biggest problem with the previous system was the denial of coverage for pre-exiting conditions.  But, to incentivize the insurance companies to provide coverage for everybody, they needed to have a really big pool of potential insureds.  From their perspective, the bigger the pool, the lower the total cost for providing insurance.  This explains the underlying reason for the individual mandate – the requirement that everybody have insurance.  And, the same logic that requires all drivers to have auto insurance applies to health insurance.  While you may not need or use medical insurance now, there is no way you’re never going to use it; everybody gets sick.  It’s just the price of being human.  When you’re younger, you use it less, but you still use it.  As you get older, you use it more.  Welcome to life.
Who Provided the Basic Design of the ACA?    

The mandate made its political début in a 1989 Heritage Foundation brief titled “Assuring Affordable Health Care for All Americans,” as a counterpoint to the single-payer system and the employer mandate, which were favored in Democratic circles. In the brief, Stuart Butler, the foundation’s health-care expert, argued, “Many states now require passengers in automobiles to wear seat-belts for their own protection. Many others require anybody driving a car to have liability insurance. But neither the federal government nor any state requires all households to protect themselves from the potentially catastrophic costs of a serious accident or illness. Under the Heritage plan, there would be such a requirement.” The mandate made its first legislative appearance in 1993, in the Health Equity and Access Reform Today Act—the Republicans’ alternative to President Clinton’s health-reform bill—which was sponsored by John Chafee, of Rhode Island, and co-sponsored by eighteen Republicans, including Bob Dole, who was then the Senate Minority Leader.         
 
 
     And the market place was a bi-partisan solution.  It’s simply a central place where consumers have the ability to compare and contrast insurance plans and options.  In short, it prevents the inherent advantage insurers used to have that was derived from a heavily fragmented market.

     And, the basic structure was used in Massachusetts, in a system proposed by a Republican governor who, if memory serves, also ran for another larger office.

Are the Republican Alternatives Viable?


     No.   If you strip out the individual mandate, but keep the non-discriminatory provision, the system will collapse.  There just isn’t a big enough pool of risk to make it work.  It’s that simple. 

A Final Thought

     The US is one of the only developed countries that doesn't have a single payer system.  Think about that and ask yourself, "why do other countries do it differently?"  It it's so bad, why haven't these countries -- which are democracies -- changed their system of providing health insurance?   It socialized medicine is terrbile, shouldn't there be a massive ground-swell of activity to change the system?  Just sayin.'
          So that’s it.  Hope you’ve found this helpful.
 
 
 

A note on Greece


  - by New Deal democrat

Cullen Roche of Pragmatic Capitalism has a good post up on Greece this morning. Basically I agree up until his forecast.

He thinks Greece will stay in the Euro and suffer the consequences because European integration is inevitable. When I read statements like that, I think of the  Norman Angell's 1910 book, "The Great Illusion,"  which forecast a Teh Awesome 20th century for Europe, because countries that trade with one another as much as European nations did back then, never make war on one another.

Ooops!!!

In short, just because something is rational, doesn't mean that emotional, stubborn human beings won't make a wrong or stupid choice.

This situation is playing out almost exactly as I expected at its start.  Both sides have every interest in staking out maximalist demands at the start, and not significantly compromising until the very last moment. But ultimately, it is a question of human choices, and they may or may not make rational sense.

Ultimately there were only two critical unknowns in the scenario:
1. would Greece have the guts to actually walk out on the Euro?
2. if so, how would the rest of the EMU react to Greece walking out on the Euro?

Why are those the two critical points?  Because up until (1), Europe has all the power.  But if Greece actually does (1), then Greece has all the power.

Before that point, inevitably someone had to blink first. The only question was, who would blink first.  That has been answered:  Greece.

Next, how would the other side react?  With compromise (rational), or with a boot crushing the adversary's face in the mud (emotional)?  It sounds like we have the answer to this as well.  Kaiser Wilhelm of 1914, meet Herr Schauble of 2015.  But, of course, a brilliant move - so long as Greece doesn't have the guts to walk out on the Euro.

So it looks like we are rapidly coming up to the point of getting an answer on the first critical unknown.  Up until now, Herr Schauble et al could have great confidence, since the polls indicated Greeks wanted debt relief.  But by a huge margin, the also wanted to stay in the Euro.  And a pony.

Well, the most recent polls show a marked increase in Greeks willing to leave the Euro.  If Tsipras has played his cards in such a manner as to make sure he is not blamed for leaving the Euro by, say, 40% or more Greeks, he can actually go through with (1).

But it is a human decision.  Just as the reaction by the rest of Europe will be a human decision if he does so. Europe will surely let out a collective gasp of shocked disbelief.  And then it will either compromise, or it won't.

Unlike Roche, I do not think continued European intergration is inevitable.

There is a structural medium term compromise which can be implemented, if Europe is willing to acknowledge that the Eurozone, in its present state, is flawed.

That compromise is the three R's: Resignation, Restructuring, and Re-entry

Resignation: the peripheral Euro states are allowed to resign from the Euro, on a temporary basis, in order to devalue.

 Restructuring: the peripheral zone states then restructure their tax and/or welfare systems to bring them into balance (either California with California-style benefits, or Mississippi with Mississippi-style benefits, or anywhere in between, but not Mississippi with California-style benefits.)

Re-entry: the restructured states re-enter the Euro at a more neutral value.

If the program is agreed up front, then it is a decent coping meachanism.

Or else the Europeans find out that indeed integration can work in reverse.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Consumer spending, income, and savings: a trifecta of good news


 - by New Deal democrat

This post is up at XE.com.  This morning's report on personal income, saving, and spending puts the last nail in the coffine of the most recent Doomer thesis: the the savings in gas prices to US consumers would do more harm than good.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Ed Morrissey: The Economic Cluelessness Burns

     Yesterday, we had a gem of analysis from Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air.  In a piece titled, "Durable goods decline 1.8%, business investment a mixed bag in May," he, once again, tries to downplay any economic advancement in the name of partisan politics.  It's actually pretty standard fair from a political blogger. 
 
     However, after reading his column, ask yourself the following questions: does he mention:
 
1.) The strong dollar and how that is hurting exports?
2.) The oil slowdown and how that is hurting mining/raw materials?
3.) The overall slow growth nature of the world economy and how that is also hurting exports?
 
For anyone who has been paying attention over the last year (as theoretically he has been), you'd know that oil's crash has led to massive capital expenditure cuts in the oil patch.  In fact, you can pretty much coordinate the starting point for weakness in industrial production and durable goods with this news event.  And, if you read such sources as Zacks on corporate earnings, you'd know the strong dollar has hurt international operations for the last two quarters.  And then there is the overall weakness in international sales, thanks to a variety of factors like the Chinese slowdown and EU weakness.  The latest anecdotal information from the latest ISM Manufacturing report highlights two to these points:
 
"Economy is showing signs of improvement." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"Automotive is still strong. However, steel prices have dropped due to overcapacity and the strong US dollar." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Overall business is steady. Employment in this area is up, a good sign." (Transportation Equipment)
"Strong spring demand in agriculture." (Chemical Products)
"The exchange rate on the dollar is hurting our sales in Asia. The conversion rate is lowering our profit in Europe where we sell in Euros." (Computer & Electronic Products)
"Sales are starting to stabilize and show improvement from prior months, Year to Date (YTD). Concerns still exist with the overall economy." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
"Continued challenges in markets related to oil and gas industries." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
"Oversupply is continuing to tighten profit margins." (Wood Products)
"West Coast port issues have eased up and our incoming imports are flowing again." (Machinery)
"Chemicals pricing seems to have bottomed and is slowly rising again." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
 
(you'll also note the ISM report talks about the negative effects of the West Coast port strike, which he also downplayed in his 1Q GDP summation). 
 
     Morrissey likes to think he's a well-researched and thoughtful economic analyst.  However, he's nothing more than a partisan hack who waits for headline grabbing negative news to drive a political narrative.

     Quick Update: This is from the latest BOJ Meeting Minutes:

The U.S. economy continued to recover solidly, assisted by household spending, although adjustments had been seen in the industrial production sector mainly on the back of the decline in crude oil prices and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Business fixed investment had been relatively weak, partly due to a decline in investment related to energy; exports had also been somewhat weak due to the effects of external demand and developments in foreign exchange markets. However, private consumption had rebounded from a decline observed last winter, supported in part by a favorable employment and income situation. Housing investment had also followed a moderate pick-up trend. As for prices, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for all items less food and energy, or the core CPI, had been more or less flat while that for all items had been at around 0 percent, mainly due to the decline in energy prices.

Wow.  The Board of the Bank of Japan knows more about the domestic investment situation than Morrissey.  Go figure.
 

Monday, June 22, 2015

The update ain't done till the Apps won't run?



 - by New Deal democrat

It used to be said of Microsoft that "The upgrade ain't done until Lotus don't run." Microsoft's OS "improvements" were notorious for rendering perfectly good older third party programs inoperable.

Well, apparently I'm not the only one whose iPad was turned into a virtual brick by the latest Apple software update.  Here's Atrios:
Also, too, thanks for bricking my inlaws' iPad with your "software update" and then lying about it to me. No I won't forget
 It took me two trips to the Genius Bar, one a marathon 3 hour session, to get my iPad back close to where it was before the latest softaware update.  My old photo library is still out there somewhere, and I have had to change how I post both here and at XE.com to get around new problems with Safari.

Apple blames everybody else for not keeping up with their OS updates.  But I never had a problem like this with Apple before. Software updates always seemed to make sure that older programs were still compatable.

Oh, and unlike Microsoft, once you update Apple you can never uninstall and go back.

Memo to Duncan Black:  call the manager of the Apple store in Center City Philly and insist that they fix the problem in store.  If you tell them you are a highly paid independent contractor, and your business depends on the iPad not being turned into an expensive brick, it helps.

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Weekly Indicators for June 15 - 19 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators piece is up at XE.com.  Some of the bad news appears to be abating, while there a new, both positive and negative, crosscurrents.

Friday, June 19, 2015

International Economic Week in Review

This is over at XE.com

The Fed vs. Millenials: inflation and the apartment boom


 - by New Deal democrat

Should the Fed raise rates when inflation is being driven exclusively by a necessity, and demand for that necessity is being driven by demographics?

Just as with Boomers 50 years ago, the Millennials have reached the age where they are moving into their first residences.  This has created a boom 
in multi-unit dwellings:




 and has driven median asking rents to record inflation-adjusted highs.

At the same time, the CPI less shelter is the most negative it has been in 60 years (-1.3%) excluding the bottoms of the 1950 and 2009 recessions.  In other words, the only important driver of inflation right now is Owner's Equivalent Rent, as shown in this graph comparing CPI for housing (red) with CPI for everything else (blue):



Notice what happened from the late 1960s through the early 1980s as the Boomer generation reached initial apartment/home buying age. The same contrast is appearing now.

Last I checked, shelter is a necessity.  So we have this huge demographic creating an increasing demand for shelter, which is driving up prices and construction, to alleviate the shortage.

If the Fed raises rates, all they are doing is making the shortage more acute (because shelter is a necessity and ultimately the demand must be filled), and hurting Millennials in the process.  Further, all that does is set the stage for even more inflation for shelter later on in the next recovery, just as it did in the 1970s.

In my opinion the Fed should relax its inflation target, specifically as to shelter, to accommodate this secular demographic need. As to everything else, at the moment inflation is a dead as the fabled parrot in the Monty Python sketch.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

The shallow industrial recession continues - but no signal for general growth


 - by New Deal democrat

Several days ago May industrial production showed another decline.  The consensus in the commentary was that this was due to continued weakness in the Oil patch and strength in the dollar.  I agree.   James Picerno also had a nice, lengthy article explaining why this ongoing decline isn't enough to be a recessionary red flag.  I agree with that too.

But it is worthwhile to show why Picerno, and the consensus, are correct, by comparing the various sectors of production, and comparing the current weakness in production with past episodes of weakness.

First, let's look at the sectors that make up the industrial production report.  In the graphs below they are manufacturing (red), mining (blue), and electricity (green).  Here's the overall look on the Q/Q% change for the last 20 years:



What I mainly want you to  notice in the above is how erratic the electricity sector is.  Current readings are no more erratic.  So let's take that out and just focus on mining and manufacturing:



While manufacturing has shown a little weakness, the biggest difference by far is in mining -- and that's where the Oil patch weakness shows up, as well as coal and metals production for export (recall how awful rail and steel have been in the Weekly Indicators for the last 4 months).

Now let's compare the present weakness with past episodes.

Here is the Q/Q% change in overall industrial production in the period from 2000 to the present, ending with Q1:.i



Note the decline in Q1 was less than -0.2%.  That's considerably less not only than prior declines associated with recessions, but even with declines where no recession occurred.

Now here is the same graphs for the 1950s and 1960s, and then the 1970s and 1980s (there was no period of weakness in the 1990s!):





Again, note that the Q1 decline in industrial production was almost trivial compared with other declines whether or not associated with prior recessions.

Finally, let's look at the recent m/m% change, to include April and May:



So far the decline in Q2 is a little bigger than that in Q1.  But still not enough to compare with past episodes of weakness that were associated with recessions.  In short, this shallow industrial recession is not derailing the robust overall economy.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Finally, a blowout housing report


 - by New Deal democrat

I have a new post up at XE.com about his morning's housing report, which was a blowout!  But don't get too excited.

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Weekly Indicators for June 8 - 12 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at XE.com.

Several recent trends in the data were amplified this week.

Friday, June 12, 2015

International Economic Review For the Week of June 8-12; Much Better, Edition

This is over at XE.com

Patterns of consumer spending: no recession near


 - by New Deal democrat

I have a new post up at XE.com, looking at two patterns of consumer spending that tend to turn near midcycle.  Neither one suggests a recession is particularly close at hand.

Actually, the labor market recovery since 2009 has been the best in 25years


 - by New Deal democrat

[UPDATE: After I published this article, I realized that I used an incorrect measure of hours worked, namely, hours for manufacturing, series AWHMAN, instead of the correct measure, hours for all jobs, series AWHI.  Using the correct measure does change the results somewhat.  The updated and corrected measures are here .  The updated results show that the current expansion is better than 4 of the previous 7, but worse than 3 others, mesured 69 months from the beginning of the expansion.  Essentially, while the number of hours and the nominal wages paid both show mediocre growth, the longevity of the expansion makes up for those deficiencies.]

Every month we read stories about what a poor labor market recovery this has been.  The latest articles were from Profs. Brad DeLong and Menzie Chinn.  I respectfully disagree.

With few exceptions, people don't get a job for social reasons.  They go to work each day in order to earn money to purchase necessities, discretionary goods, and to save for future needs.  In short, they work because of cold, hard cash.

So why is it that most economic writers appear to think the defining element of a labor market recovery after a recession is the number of jobs created?

Let me give you a few examples.

First, compare an economy that creates 1 million 40 hour a week jobs at $10/hour, with an economy that creates 2 million jobs at 10 hours a week at $10/hour.  If we were to count by job creation, the second economy would be better.  But that's clearly  not the case.  The second economy is paying out only half of the cold hard cash to workers as the first.

Next, let's compare two economies that both create 1 million 40 hour a week jobs, but one pays $10/hour and the other pays $12/hour.  Clearly the second economy is better.  It is paying workers 20% more than the first.

Finally, let's compare two economies that create 1 million 40 hour a week jobs at $10/hour.  In the first economy, there are 3% annual raises, but inflation is rising 4%.  In the second, there are 2% annual raises, but inflation is rising 1%.  Again, even though the second economy is giving less raises, it is the better one -- those workers are seeing their lot improve in real, inflation-adjusted terms, whereas the workers in the first economy are actually losing ground.

In each case, the economy creating more jobs, or more hourly employment, is inferior to the economy that pays more in real wages to its workers,  In other words, the best measure of a labor market recovery is that economy which doles out the biggest increase in real aggregate wages.

So let's compare the increase in real aggregate wages -- the total wages paid to all nonsupervisory workers, adjusted for inflation, from their bottom in each recession.  Since that was 5 years and 11 months ago for our current recovery, that will be our measuring stick.

Below are the graphs of aggregate real wages for each of the last 6 recoveries (and from the start of the series in January 1964), measured to a point 5 years and 11 months after their recession bottom. This is calculated as follows:
average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers, times average hours worked, times the number of jobs, and then divided by the consumer price index, with the result indexed to 100 at the bottom.  Here are the results:

1964 (start of data) +35.9%




1971: +17.1% (+20.6% at July 1973 peak)




1974: +13.6% (+23.3% at March 1979 peak)




1982: +21.0%





1991: +16.4%



2001: +10.1%



2009: +18.8%



Quite a different, and I believe more accurate, measure than simply comparing payrolls.   We can immediately see the effect of labor bargaining power, as all of the economic expansions before the 1980s showed far faster real aggregate wage growth than any expansion since.  Also important are the big decreases in interest rates, such as coming out of the 1982 recession, and the impact of big changes in gas prices.  

The bottom line is that,  measured 5 years and 11 months out from the bottom, this labor market recovery has been the third best of the 7 expansions, behind the 1960s and 1980s.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

The American consumer comes roaring back


 - by New Deal democrat

This morning's retail sales report marks the demise of one of the two weak areas in the US economy.

Last fall, there was a debate as to whether the decline in gas prices would be a net positive for the US economy, as an unambiguous positive for consumers (the majority view) vs. a negative due to impact on the Oil patch (Doomers!).  Prof. James Hamilton of Econbrowser wrote that the weakness in the Oil patch would be more concentrated and sooner, while the positives would be diffuse and take place over a longer period of time.  That's what has happened.

With this morning's revision, even in April real inflation-adjusted retail sales exceeded their previous November high.  With an additional gain of +1.2% in May, they have blown through the previous high by about 1%, even after inflation is taken into account (May inflation hasn't been reported yet).  The graph below includes the revised data through April (blue), together with the broader measure of real personal consumption expenditures (red):




Not only are retail sales and real retail sals at new highs, but it is almost certain that per capita real retail sales also made a new high in May.  This last measure is a pretty reliable long leading indicator, so it suggests the economy will continue to grow at least into the second quarter of next year.

to summarize:
1. there really was a bout of winter weakness due to unusually rough weather.
2. there has also been transitory weakness concentrated in the Oil patch, but as indicated by initial jobless claims, and as of this morning, consumer purchases, have outweighed that weakness.
3. take heart, Doomers!  Industrial production still stinks, due to the overly strong US$.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Test photos post

If you are seeing this, that means that I can circumvent the clusterfk of Apple's IOS 8.3 rendering Picasa inoperable, by using the Blogger App.


I spent 3 hours at the Genius Bar at my local Apple store yesterday, after the latest upgrade for all intents and purposes turned my iPad into a brick.

April 2015 JOLTS report: the first sign of an approaching employment peak"-


- by New Deal democrat

I have a new post up at XE.com discussing yesterday's JOLTS report.  Although the number of job openings are soaring, my takeaway was decidedly cautious.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

The Pied Piper of Doom is still an idiot, US Tresuury market edition


 - by New Deal democrat 

After a very long hiatus, the Pied Piper of Doom is back, determined to maintain Daily Kos as a laughingstock of economic "analysis."  His latest bit of expertise is to trumpet, via Wolf Richter, that they US treasury market is imploding, because it has been manipulated, titled Is this why US Treasuries are diving?:

The global bond market swoon wiped out $1.2 trillion in value since April. Bonds with long maturities suffered the most. The 10-year Treasury Note Price Index lost 3.2%. The 30-year yield, at 3.1% currently, is still very low, but it’s the highest since October 2014. And the 30-year Treasury Bond Price Index has dropped 9%.....
There are numerous reasons for this scenario – a very benign scenario where the greatest credit bubble in history winds down gradually, in small steps with many ups and downs that give the “smart money” time to reposition, rather than suddenly and all at once.And today we learned of another reason.....
So how tempting would it be to manipulate this monster [US treasury] market? Very, apparently.
Turns out, the Department of Justice smells a rat in this until now pristine Treasury market, according to the New York Post ....And now that the probe by the DOJ has started some time ago, we can assume that a finely-honed flurry of activity has broken out at these banks ....In the process, Treasury prices, left to the vagaries of the markets, which have already been spooked by the Fed’s interest-rate cacophony and other factors, are beginning to swoon from their manipulated perch.
Now, mind you, as far as I can tell Wolf Richter is basically Some Guy on the West Coast, but let's pass that.  Last month I caught him cherry-picking trucking data, claiming that April trucking had "fallen again" from March, based on a misleading YoY comparison, despite a huge month-over-month gain shown in the actual data.
But to t he specific point.  Here is a graph of 10 year US Treasury yields over the last year:

As you can see, since their January bottom, and particularly since mid-April, they  have risen about 0.75%.

Evidence of unwinding manipulation?  Well, let's test that by comparing Treasuries with yields on 10 year UK gilts:
Oh, dear.  It appears someone neglected to tell the British that it was US Treasuries were being manipulated, not Gilts, since they fell even more than Treasuries, by 0.85%.

And how about those sternly upright Germans?  Here's their 10 year Bund:



Now the Germans really have a right to be frosted.  Despite the fact that the alleged manipulation was of US Treasuries, German bunds have unwound the most of all, rising about 0.90% just in the last month and a half! Much more than Treasuries, which only sold off by about 0.55% during that time.

So, what might account for these moves?  Well, let's look at the news from the last week in January.  Did anything interesting happen?

Well, first of all gas prices bottomed.  This marked the end of the big deflation scare, which had dominated the Doomers at the end of 2014.

Secondly, there was this little matter that on January 25, as the BBC reported,  "Anti-austerity Syriza wins election."  Since then, of course, there has been a prolonged version of the annual spring Eurocrisis. Here's the take one week ago from the Financial Times:
 Yields on U.S. Treasurys and German bunds hit 2015 highs on Wednesday, extending a recent government-bond selloff, after a wave of upbeat economic data highlighted the valuation concerns that have nagged investors for months.
Wednesday’s price decline is the latest sign that traders and portfolio managers are once again recalibrating their expectations for the major Western economies and financial markets, following an early-year brush with deflation fears that briefly sent yields on 10-year German debt within range of zero.

Now, the Pied Piper of Doom most likely will counter that he is merely a neutral, detached observer passing along an item of interest.  Why, he isn't endorsing those views in the slightest!  He reports, you decide.

So I am sure he will pass along the FT's take on matters, above.  Or maybe
Bloomberg's. Or a sample from Business Insider.  Just for examples.

Don't hold your breath.
 
From Bonddad:
 
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Yes, he always gets permission to post someone else's stuff.  But, he been doing this for YEARS.  Can't someone with his deep knowledge, capabilities and connections write an in-depth, well-researched and documented article on his own?  I guess not.  Finally, I would guess that because the editors of DK just love this guy to no end, the regularly let him ride up to the rules without any consequence.

My two cents, inflation adjusted.

 




Saturday, June 6, 2015

Weekly Indicators for June 1 -5 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicator post is up at XE.com.

Unsurprisingly, the big news among high frequency indicators was the further upwarrd spike in interest rates.

International Economic Week in Review: A More Positive Tone, Edition

This is over at XE.com

Friday, June 5, 2015

May jobs report: the score is consumer expansion 1, industrial recession 0


- by New Deal democrat

HEADLINES:

  • 280,000 jobs added to the economy
  • U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% to 5.5%
With the expansion firmly established, the focus has shifted to wages and the chronic heightened unemployment.  Here's the headlines on those:

Wages and participation rates
  • Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: down  -200,000 from 6.258 million to 6.058 million
  • Part time for economic reasons: up +72,000 from 6.580 million to 6.652 million
  • Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: unchanged at 77.2% 
  • Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: up +0.3% from $20.91 to $20.97,  up +2.0%YoY. (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
March was revised up by +34,000, butApril was revised down by -2,000, for a net change of +32,000.

The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were virtually all positive, or at worst neutral, after 3 negative months.

  • the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours, but April was revised down -0.1.  This is one of the 10 components of the LEI and so will affect it negatively (for April).

  • construction jobs rose by 17,000. YoY construction jobs are up 273,000.  

  • manufacturing jobs rose 7,000, and are up 175,000 YoY.
  • Professional and business employment (generally higher-paying jobs) rose 64,000 and are up  673,000 YoY.

  • temporary jobs - a leading indicator for jobs overall - rose by 20,100.

  • the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less - a better leading indicator than initial jobless claims - decreased by 311,000 to  2,418,000, compared with December 2013's low of 2,255,000.

Other important coincident indicators help us paint a more complete picture of the present:

  • Overtime was unchanged at 3.3, from an upwardly revised April.

  • the index of aggregate hours worked in the economy rose 0.3 from 103.0 to 103.3.

  • The broad U-6 unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers was unchanged at    10.8%
  • the index of aggregate payrolls rose by 0.6% from an upwardly revised 123.0 to 103.3.
Other news included: 
  • the alternate jobs number contained in the more volatile household survey increased by 189,000 jobs.  This represents an increase of 2,833,000 million increase in jobs YoY vs. 3,058,000 in the establishment survey. 

  • Government jobs increased by 18,000.
  • the overall employment to population ratio for all ages 16 and above rosse +0.1 59.4%,  and has risen by +0.4% YoY. The labor force participation rate also rose 0.1% fr om 62.7% to 62.9%  and is unchanged YoY (remember, this includes droves of retiring Boomers).

SUMMARY:


This was an almost perfect report.  Almost everything moved, significanlty, in the right direction.  About the only negatives were an increase in part time for economic reasons employment, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but that was due to an increase of people entering the workforce.

Last month the leading portions of the employment report were sounding an alarm. This month that was all reversed. Only the continuing decrease in mining jobs, -65,000 so far this year, demonstrated the continuing effects of the very strong dollar on exports, but this was swamped by the positive news everywhere else.

 So the takeaway from this report is that the consumer expansion is outscoring the shallow industrial recession.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

State sales tax receipts: poor consumer sales still look like an Oil Patch issue


 - by New Deal democrat

In addition to poor industriall production, that appears to be a matter of an overly strong US$, the other part of the US economy that has failed to grow this year is consumer spending, particularly as measured by real retail sales.

Several months ago I looked at state sales tax receipts as a proxy for consumer spending, and concluded that the very harsh winter was responsible for poor sales at the beginning of this year. I updated the analysis one month ago, suggesting the effects of winter had passed, and the continuing weakness was an Oil patch phenomenon.  The latest information, through April, indicates that continues to be the case. Note that the actual sales may have taken place in the month before the revenue was remitted to the state.

The epicienter of poor winter sales numbers was New York and Massachusetts. That appears to have abated, at least in New York.

In March, New York reported at +5.1% YoY increase in sales tax receipts.  In April, the increase was +4.5% YoY. In January New York reported sales tax receipts up +4.2%, and in February they were actually down -0.3% YoY.

As to Massachusetts, the record is more subdued. In March it reported a +1..9% YoY increase in sales taxes.  In April that went down to +0.6% YoY. Campare that with than January's +0.6% YoY rate, and February's +0.2%.

Now contrast that to what has happened in Texas.  When I first reported on state sales taxes, Texas had YoY comparisons of +11.2% in January and +11.7% in February. But look at the last two months, as reported by the Dallas News:
State sales tax collections in April grew by only 1.1 percent over the previous year, as a “significant slowdown” in oil and gas-related activity pinched previously robust growth, Comptroller Glenn Hegar said Wednesday..... 
He said collections of the 6.25-percent state sales tax in the trade, restaurant, construction and manufacturing sectors “continued to grow” last month. ...   
March receipts grew by just 1.5 percent over last year.Texas hasn’t seen sales tax growth that was so low, low, low in the single digits since spring of 2010.....
That's a huge slowdown, and almost certainly means month-over-month decreases, if we were able to seasonally adjust!

At the end of June, the Census Bureau will report state by state retail sales for the first quarter.  The evidence from state sales tax receipts is that it will confirm that the ongoing weakness in consumer spending is primarily an Oil Patch issue.

Monday, June 1, 2015

Americans continue to rebuild savings


  - by New Deal democrat

It is a very rare occurrence when I agree with the Washington Post's Robert Samuelson, and disagree with Dean Baker, but this morming is once.  Sanuelson wrote that
 [T]he 2008-2009 financial crisis and the Great Recession... changed economic psychology, precisely because they were unanticipated and horrific. They transcended the experience of most Americans (that is, anyone who hadn’t lived through the Great Depression)....
The financial crisis and Great Recession have left a thick residue of anxiety. Companies and consumers responded by restraining spending, which (of course) weakened the recovery. 
Baker disagrees, saying
The problem is that the data refuses to agree with his psychoanalysis. As I pointed out yesterday, consumption is actually higher as a share of GDP than it was before the downturn, indicating that fear is not keeping households from consuming in any obvious way.
Respectfully to Prof. Baker, this morning's report on April income and spending shows that American households continue to demonstrate Keynes' paradox of thrift.

The good news is, real personal income, both with and without taking into account governmet transfer payments, rose to new highs:


This is why this year's "shallow industrial recession" shown in industrial production generally, and steel and rail particularly, hasn't spread to a recession in the entire economy.

The bad news - for economic growth - is that they didn't spend any of that increase, as real personal consumption expenditures for April, like the more narrow measure of real retail sales, declined ever so slightly:


Simply put, Americans continue to save rather than spend thei money they are no longer spending to fill up their gas tanks.

As a result, the personal savings rate went back up to 5.6% in April.  But to put that in context, here is the graph of the personal savings rate going all the way back to 1990:


In the early 1970s, the personal savings rate was as high as 14%+.  As the graph shows, it gradually decreased to 2% in 2005. It has been increasing secularly since.  Note that the sudden decline at the beginning of 2013 marks the time when the temporary 2% reduction in Social Security withholding expired.  Consumers responded not by cutting back, but rather by digging deeper into their savings. Since then, the increasing secular trend has reasserted itself.

This is of a piece with the steep decline in household debt burdens that began with the Great Recession.

So I think Samuelson is correct that the events of the last 10 years profoundly affected consumer psychology, leading to more cautious spending.  That households are rebuilding their balance sheets is a good thing - in moderation - so long as it merely holds back growth a little and doesn't tip us back into recession.

(P.S.  Many thanks to my "underpaid and sexually harassed secretarial service," a/k/a Bonddad, for iinserting the graphs.)

A note about ISM manufacturing


  - by New Deal democrat

This morning the ISM manufacturing index for May was reported at 52.8, up from April's 51.5.

This is a good timre to remind you that there has never been a recession when the ISM reading has been over 50.

Fiurther, the index captures the indsutrial slowdown quite nicely, as it slid from 57 in Novmeber to the aforementioned 51.5 in both March and April.

(I would show you this in a nice graph, but Apple's IOS 8.3 has destroyed my ability to upload new graphs to Blogger. Grrrrrr).

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Weekly Indicators for May 25 - 29 at XE.com


  - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicator post is up at XE.com.

The parttern that has existed since mid-February of awful industrial data and poor consumer spending, but good comparisons for everything else, is firmly intact.

Friday, May 29, 2015

International Economic Week in Review

This is over at XE.com

Texas Flooding Picture

There have been a ton of pictures and videos showing the recent flooding in Texas.  But this picture stands out as the best.  First, a bit of background.  Stevie Ray Vaughn's first album was called Texas Flood.  It also contained a slow blues called "Texas Flood."  Here is a picture of Stevie's statue in Austin either walking on water or rising about the Texas flood.  Either way, it's just perfect.

 
 
BTW: I'm fine and unscathed.

Mixed news from leading indicators in Q1 GDP


 - by New Deal democrat 

I have a new post up at XE.com.

Corporate profits and gross domestic income, two leading indicators from GDP, were reported for Q1 for the first time this morning.  The news is mixed.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Analyzing the crosscurrents: a maturing expansion


 - by New Deal democrat

At the moment the US economy doesn't seem to be flowing with any strong central current.  I've been meaning to write an overview of these, and I suppose now is as good a time as any.  No bunch of graphs or links here, just a sense of my overall view.

1.  Without a big positive, the economy is being driven by smallball improvements.

The US has been for the last several generations, consumer-driven.  Typically increased consumer spending has been funded by one or more of the following sources:

  • increased real wages
  • refinancing of existing debt at lower interest rates (thus freeing more cash flow)
  • an increase in asset values, such as stocks (1982-2000) or houses (2001-2005)
When all of these sources of increased available cash have dried up, recessions have ensued.  In the case of refinancing, that has tended to peter out about 3 years after the last new low in interest rates.  

So where are we now?  We are getting a slight bit of help from all sources:
  • helped by the crash in gas prices, real wages have made fresh post-recession highs this year
  • mortgage interest rates last made new lows near the end of 2012, so that bout of refinancing is still helping a little bit
  • stock prices are at new all-time highs, fueling the wealth effect among the more affluent, while house prices have also appreciated to post-recession highs, meaning fewer homeowners are "underwater" although home equity withdrawal is probably dead for years to come.
The earliest all three of these could be negative is the end of this year.  Unless mortgage interest rates make new lows, beginning in 2016 the expansion is on borrowed time.

2.  Interest rates drive housing, and housing drives the economy

As readers of this blog well know, the building of new housing affects the economy a year or more out.  That's because houses must be filled with furniture, appliances, and other improvements. Decks, gardens, and other landscaping are installed. This can take several years.

So in mid-2013, the "taper tantrum" caused a spike in interest rates.  By early 2014, new housing completely stalled, in several months turning negative YoY.  Since then mortgage rates fell by roughly 1%, and now housing has made new post-recession highs.

This means that the poor GDP in the first quarter and probably somewhat now can be ascribed to the poor housing market of early 2014.  Over the next year, the improvement in housing should feed through to an improvement in the broader economy.

3.  The winter did have an impact, but it is over

Yes, we have winter every year, but some are more severe than others.  After 10 mild winters, in 2014 and 2015, the northeast and midwest had particularly nasty and cold winters.  The data suffered.  In particular, the awful winter probably accounts for the poor retail sales numbers in January and February (since recovered in March and April), and also the abysmal housing starts number in February (since completely recovered in April).

4. The west coast ports strike had an impact, but it's over

This is outsourced to Bill McBride a/k/a Calulated Risk.  Port traffic on the West Coast has returned to normal.

5.  The Oil patch has been kicked in the chops, but strength elsewhere has more than offset the downside in most regards

This is best shown in the state by state breakdown in weekly initial jobless claims. New 15 year lows in nationwide claims have been set, even as states like - especially - Texas have had big YoY increases. Meanwhile the Empire State and Philly Fed indexes show expansion, even as Kansas City and Dallas show sharp contraction.

At the same time, those Oil patch layoffs are probably responsible for the failure of retail sales to make new highs since November, as we know that those laid off cut back expnses sharply.  At the same time, like in 1986 when oil prices collapsed, consumers at first saved the money, only spending it in full after the passage of an entire year.

6.  On the US$, maybe it's time for the Obama Administration to wiegh in more publicly on Grexit

As I've pointed out in other posts, the US$ appreciated by about 16% on a trade-weighted basis between last summer and March. As a result, exports have taken a big hit, as shown in the weekly rail and steel statistics.  At the moment, not only are Germany's beggar thy neighbor policies killing the Euro periphery, but that big slide of the Euro vs. the dollar has brought US growth to a complete standstill.  That should remedy itself with a rebalancing of the currencies, but not with continuing brinksmanship in Europe over Grexit, and now Brexit and soon to be added Spexit.

So far the US has, prudently, regarded this as "a fire across the river" to use the Japanese maxim.  But with US growth so seriously affected, it migh be time for a more public and/or coercive approach.

7.  The Fed is really caught between Scylla and Charibis

The Fed seems bound and determined to raise rates.  In practice, it is treating 2% core inflation as a ceiling rather than a target, having tolerated lower inflation for years, but announcing that it will be proactive against any breach to the upside.

When the Fed raises rates, what will happen to long rates?  A significant increase will kill the housing market.  A significant decrease will cause a yield curve inversion.  The Fed has to hope that long rates remain in a narrow band of stability.  I'm not holding my breath for the success of that strategy.

Bottom line:
  1. There are some transient negatives (Oil patch wekaness, the overly strong US$), but at least until the end of this year, the economy is underpinned by fundamental positives.
  2. After that, there are lots of ways for the economy to enter a cul-de-sac, most notably interest rate increases and/or an increase in gas prices  while I don't see the economy rolling over yet, I do think the expansion is past its midpoint, and is maturing.


Monday, May 25, 2015

Memorial Day 2015


  - by New Deal democrat

"The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here."
  -  Abraham Lincoln, Gettysburg address 




Gettysburg National Cemetery



Antietam National Cemetery


Arlington National Cemetery

"We cannot dedicate - we cannot consecrate - we cannot hallow - this ground.  The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract."  - Abraham Lincoln

US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of May 18-22; Housing Rebounds But the Markets Continue Grinding, Edition

This is over at XE.com