- by New Deal democrat
FRED has been very slow about updating either personal income and spending or Q1 GDP data graphs, so while I am waiting let me update with the weekly jobless claims information. To cut to the chase, it continues to be positive, and continues to forecast a further declilne in the unemployment rate.
Initial claims rose 9.000 to 197,000, still among the very best readings in over 50 years, while the four week average declined -5,000 to 202,750, also among the lowest in over 50 years. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -7,000 to 1.782 million:
As per my bullet point above, on a YoY% change basis, initial claims were down -10.0%, the four week average down -8.5%, and total claims down -8.0%:
These are strongly positive short leading readings for the economy. Additionally, since jobless claims lead the unemployment rate, here is the latest update on that comparison:
Accordingly, I expect the unemployment rate to hold decline further in the next few months. We’ll see next week.
