- by New Deal democrat
The new regime of lower jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -11,000 to 207,000, while the four week moving average rose 500 to 209,750. Both of these remain within a stone’s throw of their recent 50+ year lows. Continuing claims, with the usual one week delay, rose 31,000 to 1.818 million but aside from that and one other recent week, is the lowest since May 2024:
The YoY% changes also continue to be lower, with initial claims down -4.6%, the four week average down -5.1%, and continuing claims down -3.1%.:
This continues to be very positive for the economy over the next several months. To reiterate, jobless claims are currently the most positive leading indicator of any across the board.
Since jobless claims lead the unemployment rate, let’s update that as well:
Jobless claims continue to indicate that the unemployment rate over the next several months should decline to the 4.2% or even 4.0% range.
