- by New Deal democrat
It’s a slow economic news week, so don’t be surprised if I play hookie tomorrow or Wednesday.
In the meantime, now that we have July’s inflation data, we can update some “real” consumer well-being indicators.
First, real average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers rose 0.1% in July to a new all-time high excluding April through June 2020:
It has risen 3.8% since its pre-pandemic all-time high, and 3.0% from its June 2022 post-pandemic low (when gas prices were $5/gallon).
Meanwhile, Motio Research has updated their monthly calculation of real median household income through June. It is also at an all-time high excluding the months of March through August 2020:
Note this includes pandemic stimulus payments as well as wages, which is why it surged during the early months of the pandemic.
Finally, real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers - the best measure of the collective buying power of America’s middle and working class - declined -0.1% in July from its all-time high in June:
Although, per the BLS, Hurricane Beryl did not affect the employment or unemployment numbers for July, there is some indication that it *did* impact the number of hours worked, which declined -0.2%. This decline in hours explains why aggregate payrolls declined, even though real wages per hour worked increased.
If real aggregate payrolls fail to make a new high in the next couple of months, that would be cause for some concern, since the peak in this metric is a short leading indicator for recessions.
But all in all, real income in July continued the recent run of good news.
