Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Industrial production now exceeds pre-pandemic level


 - by New Deal democrat

Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported this morning for August, and was positive in a particularly significant way.

Total production increased 0.4% in August, and the manufacturing component increased 0.1%. Nothing particularly special about that; in fact the manufacturing component was a little weak compared with most recent months. Additionally, the July numbers were revised slightly (not significantly) higher and lower for each, respectively.

But what is important, as shown in the graph below in which the respective values are normed to 100 as of February 2020, is that both total and manufacturing production have now exceeded their pre-pandemic levels:

Total production is 0.3% above its February 2020 love, and manufacturing is 1.5% above its prepandemic level.
This leaves employment as the only coincident indicator which has not completely  recovered its pandemic deficit.