- by New Deal democrat
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were uniformly very positive:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
This report was a positive shock. Rehiring in May outweighed the continuing and spreading layoffs. At first blush it appears this was primarily among the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors which were more than decimated in March and April.
A few sectors have recovered more than half of the jobs that were lost, but most have only regained 10% or 20% of their losses. Further, because average hourly wages have maintained over 80% of the increase in April - because lower wage jobs were primarily lost - this strongly suggests that the job recalls were relatively speaking tilted towards higher paying jobs as well.
Most importantly, aggregate payrolls are still down more than 10% from their recent peak. Unless a miracle happens and a huge majority of the job losses are reversed in the next 45 days, when the enhanced unemployment insurance passed by Congress runs out in July, there is going to be a major knock-on shock to the economy.