- by New Deal democrat
Earlier this week I wrote about the state of the short leading indicators. On Monday, manufacturers new orders came in positive.
This morning, consumer spending on durable goods, as well as overall, also improved sharply:
If a consumer led recession were close at hand, I would expect consumer spending on durables to decline significantly. Obviously, that hasn’t happened.
While I am at it, here is the updated comparison of real personal consumption expenditures with real retail sales, measured YoY:
Going back over 50 years, typically the latter has both improved more earlier in the cycle, and decelerated into decline first later in the cycle. The present picture continues to be late cycle with no imminent sign of any actual downturn.
Left to its own devices, the chances of a near term recession in the economy are receding dramatically.*
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*subject to the next trade war tweet
