At the beginning of every year, I give a forecast for each of the two halves of the year. And at the end of each year, I look back and mark my forecasts to market. In that way I try to be completely transparent, and to keep myself honest. Since we're at the end of 2018, let's look back to last January and see how I did.
In my forecast for the first half of 2018, I wrote:
....They're good and so is the near term economy.
As I wrote at the time, that was a pretty easy call, because there had been a surge last autumn of almost all of the leading indicators.
Turning to the second half of 2018, last January after reviewing all of the long leading indicators, I wrote: